Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.611845 25.728687 29.085986 32.967147 37.326236 42.066823 47.608740
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.036433 22.270848 27.180198 33.276705 40.627607 49.187532 59.892785
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.379155 20.017404 25.654786 32.981486 42.220029 53.447800 68.089717
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.602647 18.546849 24.810211 33.280401 44.383365 58.383172 77.306836
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.538234 17.791231 24.685886 34.330593 47.395392 64.387851 88.058008
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.179748 16.468773 23.644805 34.004426 48.471539 67.834081 95.561485
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.599467 14.659749 21.747439 32.292232 47.450637 68.295632 98.934422
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.005154 14.194254 21.667750 33.082317 49.908994 73.596893 109.205787
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.504053 13.809268 21.652337 33.928958 52.455272 79.109283 120.018861
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.797329 13.039371 20.991228 33.741714 53.429151 82.360829 127.673246
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.107531 12.230118 20.197132 33.272715 53.912332 84.866690 134.293858
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.611313 11.686552 19.767316 33.322028 55.163279 88.546281 142.817710
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.238235 11.326342 19.618503 33.831337 57.203253 93.597727 153.817162
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.841900 10.892518 19.315698 34.064186 58.807076 98.047696 164.106888
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.394069 10.326190 18.741657 33.789762 59.536901 101.109176 172.285193
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.087863 9.984468 18.520172 34.086490 61.213518 105.750664 183.207023
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.933554 9.905955 18.746616 35.163352 64.257846 112.759685 198.326252
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.574758 9.413065 18.198282 34.828840 64.832866 115.664806 206.706180
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.047134 8.550294 16.914418 33.078259 62.802777 114.036800 207.286478
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.912721 8.446886 17.025883 33.886120 65.376024 120.416073 221.904209
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.793573 8.363520 17.166858 34.751918 68.091306 127.153301 237.428211
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.553373 8.011889 16.766685 34.560437 68.836431 130.429457 246.961516
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.299149 7.609142 16.237091 34.080848 69.005305 132.664189 254.704861